~  Insights from 1.5 million orders reveal how consumer behaviour efficiency and fulfilment will shape ecommerce growth in 2026 ~

India, 28^th January 2026 – LS Digital, India’s leading Integrated Independent Digital Business Transformation (DBT) company, has released its comprehensive ecommerce report, The Great Indian Commerce Shift, analysing over 1.5 million orders across 30+ enterprise brands during the festive season from July to December 2025. The finding point to a structural shift in how consumers discover, decide, and purchase online, offering a data-backed view of how behaviour, media efficiency and fulfilment models are shaping ecommerce growth in 2026.

The study confirms a structural collapse of the traditional linear sales funnel, replaced by what the report terms “Bipolar Buying”, Consumers are now splitting behaviour between the ‘Need-It-Now’ Quick Commerce economy and the ‘Planned Premium’ Marketplace economy. Purchase journeys are no longer predictable, with intent increasingly shaped by urgency, context, and speed rather than scale-drive exposure.

Festive 2025 also marked a decisive “efficiency flip.” Marketplace conversion rates improved from 4.4% to 6.1%, At the same time, D2C brands reduced ad spends by nearly 120 – 180 BPS and still delivered a 55% improvement in ROAS. The data signals a clear shift away from volume-led growth towards contribution-led performance, driven by sharper targeting and higher-intent demand.

Quick Commerce emerged as a dominant force for low-ticket and impulse purchases, extending well beyond groceries. The report finds that Quick Commerce delivered 3-5x higher conversion rates than traditional marketplaces for items priced under ₹500, effectively collapsing the consideration window and converting intent directly into purchase. Marketplaces, meanwhile, continued to play a critical role for premium, high-consideration categories where trust and reliability remain key.

The report further highlights that ad inflation in 2025 was category-specific, not systemic. While Personal Care and Home & Décor saw CPC inflation of 77% and 71% respectively, categories such as Innerwear and Household Supplies recorded CPC deflation of 33% and 46%, creating efficiency arbitrage opportunities for brands willing to rebalance media investments. Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets drove 65% of festive orders, reinforcing Bharat as the primary engine of ecommerce growth.

Operationally, speed emerged as a decisive trust lever. For the first time, 51% of festive orders were fulfilled via stores, overtaking centralized warehouses. The report also reveals that delivery timelines exceeding three days resulted lead to a 140% spike in return-to-origin rates, particularly for cash-on-delivery orders in non-metro markets, making ship-from-store models critical for profitable scale.

Commenting on the findings, Rupak Ved, Group CBO and CEO – Media, LS Digital, said, “The 2025 festive season made one thing clear: growth is no longer a function of scale alone. The linear funnel is dead, and Shoppers have split into two distinct economies. In 2026, efficiency will not come from bidding smarter but will come from allocating budgets correctly across the funnel and building intent before the conversion window open. Brands that align with ‘Platform Personality will see exponential efficiency gains, while those chasing volume will struggle against the inflation wall.”

The findings underline that in 2026, competitive advantage will be shaped by how effectively brands convert real-time intent into frictionless commerce, optimise blended customer acquisition costs (CAC), and build speed across media and fulfilment.

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